Tax Cuts, Factory Incentives: What To Watch For In Budget 2023

Union budget on Wednesday will test the government's resolve to stay fiscally prudent as expectations of lower taxes, wider social security net and further boost to production gather steam before national elections.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the nation's vast middle class and increase spend on the poor through programs such as rural jobs, while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing, according to economists and reports in local media.

Social welfare programs would get "appropriate" allocation as "the gap between have and have nots has widened," said India Ratings & Research Pvt. economist Devendra Kumar Pant. Inflation has eroded spending power and relief in tax "can provide the much-needed thrust to the consumption demand."

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's final full-year spending plan before 2024 polls comes amid rising interest rates and slowing global growth, which could make him desist from outright populism. Economists in a Bloomberg survey see fiscal deficit narrowing to 5.9% of gross domestic product, from 6.4% this year, needing another year of record borrowing.

While markets will be closely watching for the budget speech at 11 am  to see what Asia's third-biggest economy has in store for investors, US short seller Hindenburg's scathing report on billionaire Gautam Adani's conglomerate has also put spotlight on the country, and the issue may reverberate in the budget session of parliament.

Here are some of the measures to look out for in the budget:

Tax Tweaks

Sitharaman's recent comments on knowing the "pressures of the middle class" have added to speculation she would put some money in the pockets of taxpayers. But there are no free lunches. "Any tinkering with rates at the lower income brackets will be compensated by increasing the cess/surcharge for the upper income brackets," Yes Bank economists led by Indranil Pan said, projecting a 15% rise in tax receipts next year.

She may also raise import duties on items such as private jets, helicopters, high-end electronic items and jewelery to encourage domestic manufacturing, according to The Economic Times.

Social Sector

India's jobless rate jumped to a 16-month high of 8.3% last month, underscoring the challenge to create jobs for the world's biggest population. DBS Group economist Radhika Rao sees the spend on rural job guarantee topping this year's allocation of 730 billion rupees ($9 billion), with crop insurance, rural road infrastructure and low-cost housing also getting attention.

India's world-beating growth masks rising inequality with 21 wealthiest billionaires possessing more wealth than 700 million Indians, according to Oxfam India. The budget may widen the ambit of small savings plans for the elderly and the girl child, said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, an economist with State Bank of India.

Manufacturing

With India positioning itself as an alternative to China in the global supply chain, manufacturers willing to set up factories in the country expect more financial benefits from the government. The budget may see production-linked incentives getting extended to sectors such as shipping containers and toys, according to Hindustan Times.

Strategies can be finetuned to provide a push to manufacturing activities and employment generation through deepening and widening of output-linked benefits, Yes Bank analysts said.

Budget wishlist for some of the other sectors includes:

• Extension of long term capital gains tax to immovable property, unlisted shares
• Compensation to oil retailers for selling fuel below market prices
• Reduction in taxes on cryptoassets announced in last budget
• Cut in import taxes on gold to 10% to rein in illegal shipments
• Increase in defense budget amid border tensions with China
• Higher capital allocation for banks, more freedom to raise capital

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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"India A Bright Spot": IMF Predicts Global Growth To Fall To 2.9%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 percent from 6.8 percent during the current fiscal ending March 31.

The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.

“Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook. We have 6.8 percent growth for this current fiscal year, which runs until March, and then we're expecting some slowdown to 6.1 percent in fiscal year 2023. And that is largely driven by external factors,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist and Director, Research Department of the IMF told reporters here.

“Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8 percent in 2024, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds,” said the IMF's World Economic Outlook update.

According to the report, growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, after the deeper-than-expected slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 percent attributable to China's economy.

China's real GDP slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2022 implies a 0.2 percentage point downgrade for 2022 growth to 3.0 percen -- the first time in more than 40 years with China's growth below the global average. Growth in China is projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023, reflecting rapidly improving mobility, and to fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling at below 4 percent over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms.

“Overall, I want to point out that emerging market economies on the whole and developing economies seem to be already on their way up. We have a slight increase in growth for the region from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4 percent in 2023,” Gourinchas said.

“Another relevant point here is that if we look at both China and India together, they account for about 50 percent of world growth in 2023. So a very significant contribution,” he said.

“I want to say, we had a positive view on India in our October forecast. That positive view is largely unchanged,” Gourinchas said in response to a question.

In a blog post he wrote that India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a 10th for the US and euro area combined, he added.

For advanced economies, the slowdown will be more pronounced, with a decline from 2.7 percent last year to 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent this year and next. Nine out of 10 advanced economies will likely decelerate, Gourinchas said.

The US' growth will slow to 1.4 percent in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes work their way through the economy. Euro area conditions are more challenging despite signs of resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter, and generous fiscal support, he said.

“With the European Central Bank tightening monetary policy, and a negative terms-of-trade shock — due to the increase in the price of its imported energy — we expect growth to bottom out at 0.7 percent this year,” Gourinchas wrote.

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On Shubman Gill's Poor T20I Form, Gambhir's Huge Prithvi Shaw Statement

Labelled by many as the ‘future of Indian batting', Shubman Gill hasn't been able to create the same impact in T20 cricket for India as he has been in ODI cricket. After yet another poor show at the top for the national team, Gill has been given a subtle warning by former India opener Gautam Gambhir who feels the player still ‘hasn't found his feet in T20 format'. Gill was dismissed for just 11 runs off 9 balls, squandering another opportunity to become an important member of the Indian team. 

After the conclusion of the 2nd T20I against New Zealand, Gambhir highlighted how Shubman has struggled against spin bowling. He urged the right-handed batter to improve the skill of handling spinners, especially on turning wickets.

“I feel Shubman Gill has to get better against spin, on a spinning wicket. He had his struggles against Bangladesh as well. Yes, he has been fabulous in the 50-over format, got good wickets to bat on, with 5 fielders inside, But then, you've got to get better when the ball starts spinning, gripping and bouncing as well. He will get tested, not only against seam but spin as well,” Gambhir said on Star Sports. 
 
Gambhir also feels Gill's ‘basic game' suits ODI cricket more than T20 cricket. On the contrary, Prithvi Shaw is a player whose ‘basic game' suits the shortest format more.

“He still hasn't found his feet in T20 format, when it comes to playing international cricket. Sometimes you have to play at a different tempo. His basic game suits 50-over format. Someone like Prithvi Shaw, his basic instinctive game is made for T20 cricket. Shubman Gill is someone whose basic game is made for 50-over format. How quickly he learns and adapts to this format will decide whether he will be able to play all the three formats,” Gambhir asserted.

In the first two T20Is against New Zealand, Shubman has scored just 18 runs cumulatively. In comparison, he had scored over 350 runs in the 3-match ODI series against the same opponents.

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Adani Enterprises Shares Rise, Other Group Stocks Fall On Hindenburg Impact

Watch: Rahul Dravid's 'Special Message' For Women's T20 U19 WC Winners

Following India's triumph in the ICC Women U19 T20 World Cup, the national men's team congratulated them on their historic title win. Indian bowlers' tremendous bowling performance followed by Gongadi Trisha and Soumya Tiwari's knocks helped India lift the inaugural U19 Women's T20 World Cup title defeating England by seven wickets in the summit clash at Senwes Park in Potchefstroom on Sunday.

Indian head coach Rahul Dravid, previously the head coach of the men's under-19 team, under whose guidance Men in Blue won the 2018 U19 World Cup, noted that the win was a landmark moment for women's cricket.

"Today was a landmark day for the Indian women's U19 team. I would like to pass it on to U19 Men's captain to deliver a message for the girl," said Dravid in a video posted by BCCI.

Following this, he passed on the mic to the 2018 U19 World Cup winning skipper Prithvi Shaw.

"I think it is a great achievement. Congratulations, well done," said Shaw after which the entire team cheered aloud for the women's team in unison.

A special message from Lucknow for India's ICC Under-19 Women's T20 World Cup-winning team #TeamIndia | #U19T20WorldCup pic.twitter.com/g804UTh3WB

— BCCI (@BCCI) January 29, 2023

Chasing a target of 69, India captain Shafali Verma started their world cup winning chase by smashing a beautiful four on Hannah Baker's delivery. Baker then gave her team a big breakthrough as she dismissed Shafali for 15 off 11. England bowlers tried to turn the game back as captain Grace Scrivens removed dangerous batter Shweta Sehrawat for 5 runs of 6 balls.

The right-handed batter Gongadi Trisha then came out to bat. Soumya Tiwari played some aggressive boundaries while Trisha played the anchor role. After 10 overs India needed 21 runs in 60 balls to win. Gongadi Trisha then hammered Ellie Anderson for back-to-back fours.

In the 13th over of the innings, Alexa Stonehouse dismissed Gongadi Trisha for 24 off 29 deliveries. Soumya Tiwari then led Team India to clinch the inaugural U19 Women's T20 World Cup title beating England by seven wickets.

Earlier, opted to field first, Indian bowlers completely dominated the game from the beginning against England in the summit clash. Titas Sadhu provided India with their first wicket of the innings, dismissing England opener Liberty Heap on a two-ball duck.

Grace Scrivens and Niamh Fiona Holland tried to handle the pressure as they played some boundary shots. However, Holland could not stay long on the crease as she was sent back to the pavilion.

After Holland's wicket, England's batters lost their wickets at regular intervals. India set the tone early with the new ball and gave blows to the England Women Under-19 at regular intervals to bundle them for 68.

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Sensex, Nifty Suffer Losses In Early Session

"Shocker Of A Wicket": Hardik Lambasts Pitches Used In New Zealand T20Is

India skipper Hardik Pandya on Sunday slammed the standard of pitches used in the ongoing series against New Zealand and called the track prepared for the second T20I a "shocker". The ball turned in the first T20I in Ranchi and it was no different on Sunday when New Zealand were restricted to 99 for eight. India chased down the target with only one ball to spare. "To be honest, it was a shocker of a wicket. Both the games we have played on so far. I don't mind difficult wickets," said Hardik after the series-leveling win over New Zealand.

"I am all up for that, but these two wickets were not made for T20. Somewhere down the line the curators or the grounds that we are going to play in should make sure they prepare the pitches earlier. Other than that, happy. Even 120 would have been a winning total," he said.

The series decider will be played in Ahmedabad on Wednesday. "I always believed that we'll be able to finish the game, but it went quite late. All these games are important with the moments. You don't need to panic because it was about rotating the strike rather than taking the pressure. That's exactly what we did. We followed our basics," he said about the tense finish.

On the bowlers' impressive performance, he added: "They stuck to their plans and ensured they (New Zealand) did not rotate the strike. We kept rotating the spinners. Dew didn't play much part in this. They were able to spin the ball more than us. It was carrying through well." New Zealand skipper Mitchell Santer said 120 could have been a winning total on the surface.

"It was a great game of cricket. To get it so close was a great effort from the bowlers. If we would have got an extra 10 or 15, could have been the difference. The calmness of Surya and Hardik to get them over the line was pretty good.

"We bowled 16 or 17 overs of spin, definitely something different. With the bounce out there, it looked challenging. You are not sure what a good total is. 120 might have been a good score," said Santner. 

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Watch: Warner's Tribute To Shahrukh Khan's Pathaan Leaves Fans Impressed

Shahrukh Khan's latest movie Pathaan has broken multiple records since its release on January 25 and it has now gained a famous fan – Australian cricket team star David Warner. Warner, who is well known for his online videos featuring Indian songs and movie scenes, posted a hilarious video to pay tribute to the movie. In the video which has gone viral on social media, Warne juxtaposed his own face on that of Shahrukh Khan's in various scenes from the movie Pathaan. "Wow what a film, can you name this?? #legend #icon," Warner captioned the post which he released along with the song 'Besharam Rang'.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by David Warner (@davidwarner31)

The video was loved by several users on Instagram and India bowler Khaleel Ahmed also appreciated the effort by Warner. The Australia opener had previously posted videos of him dancing to Indian songs. 

The spy-thriller, which marked Shahrukh Khan's return to the big screens after more than four years, went on to become the biggest opener in Hindi cinema history with a record of ₹ 55 crore. As a result, it was able to beat the record created by massive films like RRR and KGF 2. 

Warner will be travelling to India for the upcoming Test series which will start on February 9. The Australia opener recently said that he was exhausted due to the extended home season where he took part in the Big Bash League (BBL) for the Sydney Thunder franchise. Just ahead of the BBL season, Warner also played in all three Test matches for the Australian cricket team. 

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2nd T20I: India Defeat New Zealand In Low-Scoring Thriller, Level Series

Indian spinners revelled on a turning track before the batters made heavy weather of a small target to register a scrappy series levelling win over New Zealand in the second T20 International in Lucknow on Sunday. The trio of Yuzvendra Chahal, Washington Sundar and Kuldeep Yadav impressed on a helping surface to limit a self-destructing New Zealand to 99 for eight, their lowest total against India in the shortest format. It should have been a straight-forward run chase but the top-order comprising Ishan Kishan (19 off 32), Shubman Gill (11 off 9) and Rahul Tripathi (13 off 18) had a tough time again in spin-friendly conditions.

In the end, Hardik Pandya (15 not out off 20) and Suryakumar Yadav (26 not out off 31) took the team over the line with a ball to spare and six wickets in hand.

The series decider will be played in Ahmedabad on Wednesday.

With the likes of Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli not playing T20s since the World Cup last year, opportunities have been presented to the younger players who are yet to make them count.

Kishan has gone off the boil since his double hundred in Bangladesh while Gill has not been able to carry on his scintillating ODI form into T20s. The stylish right-hander fell while trying to pull a spinner for the second game in a row but was surprised by the amount of turn.

Tripathi, who is getting to play at number three in Kohli's absence, was unable to take the attack to the New Zealand spinners.

The Indians felt the pressure and that was evident with the run out of Washington Sundar, who sacrificed his wicket to ensure Surya's stay in the middle.

Since the asking rate was never an issue, India could afford to stutter in the chase.

A four after 45 balls, coming from Hardik's bat in the 19th over, released a lot of pressure before the skipper completed the job alongside Surya who hit the winning four.

Earlier, Hardik decided to employ spinners from both ends in the powerplay after opening the bowling himself.

Wrist spinners Kuldeep (1/17) and Chahal (1/4), playing in a T20 together after a while, extracted a lot out of the Lucknow surface while finger spinner Washington (1/17) produced another tidy spell.

Chahal was left licking his lips after the first ball of his opening spell. It was a ripper that pitched on leg stump before beating the outside edge of Finn Allen's bat. The opener perished two balls later trying to reverse sweep with the ball thudding into his back leg before crashing on to the stumps.

The in-form Devon Conway too fell to a reverse sweep as the ball kissed his gloves on way to wicketkeeper Ishan Kishan.

New Zealand were soon reduced to 35 for three in seventh over when the dangerous Glenn Phillips missed a straight ball from Deepak Hooda in his attempt to reverse sweep the part time off-spinner.

Daryl Mitchell got a beauty from Kuldeep that came back in sharply to shatter the stumps.

New Zealand bat deep but none of their batters were able to apply themselves on a testing pitch.

Pacer Arshdeep Singh, who has been guilty of bowling too many no balls lately and Shivam Mavi, were only used in the death overs.

Arshdeep did well to take wickets in his two tough overs and conceded only eight runs. Hardik ended with figures of one for 25 in four overs.

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Border-Gavaskar Trophy: Australia Sweat Over Fitness Of Green, Starc Ahead

Australia all-rounder Cameron Green might come up short on his bowling fitness as he eyes to be match-ready for the first Test of the Border-Gavaskar trophy against hosts India. Green has been training with the team in Sydney ahead of the Test match in Nagpur to regain match fitness to force his way into the playing eleven for the first Test and will be hoping to hear good news from the surgeon for his broken finger which he sustained against South Africa during the Melbourne Test last month.

Early in his professional career, Green has shown himself to be a cricketer who relishes the tempo of consistently playing long-form. He has improved over the course of the summer in both the Test matches this season and the Ashes from a year ago.

In Melbourne, he took five wickets against South Africa before fracturing his finger. The all-rounder came in to bat and managed to make a crucial unbeaten fifty, playing with the injured finger.

"Where he's positioned at the moment, his biggest challenge is bowling. There is a lack of loading there, and one of the key reasons around us getting into this camp early is to make sure that we're ready to go for the rigours of what the bowling unit [is] going to encompass. Building confidence is the main thing, setting him up to succeed in that first Test match, having enough time, that will be the critical question," Australia head coach Andrew McDonald said as quoted by ESPN.

Green would be regarded as a specialist batter, though, if his bowling does not quite measure up. Last year, he demonstrated his aptitude for catching up quickly on the subcontinent with key half-centuries in Lahore and, in Galle, where he won Player of the Match on a tricky surface.

The all-rounder, though is essential in balancing Australia's side. The selectors will have to choose whether to stick with a two-quick, two-spinner balance, as they did against South Africa at the SCG, or to support their usual strength in pace with an additional quick, if he is unable to bowl (or play).

McDonald however, ruled out using three specialised spinners despite Green's inability to bowl.

Matt Renshaw and Peter Handscomb, who both played at the SCG, are other options for the Ausssies at No 6 if Green isn't seen as a specialist batter, with the latter complementing a plethora of left-handers who might be working in his favour.

"We see him [Handscomb] as an important right-hand option. We've got a lot of left-handers. If there were to be any late changes, or Cameron Green doesn't make that first Test, we feel we have some good options," McDonald said.

Mitchell Starc, Australia's other major injury concern, is expected to be ready for the second Test in Delhi on February 17, however, there is a discussion about sending him out earlier than originally intended.

Starc also sustained a finger injury at the MCG (Melbourne Cricket Ground) and has been bowling with protection in practice, but will be not permitted to do so during a game.

McDonald described his progress as remarkable while mentioning that there is still a set time frame for his return.

"The guard needs to stay on. Really protecting against the knock that would then re-injure that ligament. That's why it's a clear-cut deadline to mitigate against any of that risk. We can't accelerate that, to be honest. It's probably frustrating for Mitch that he feels that good. But the good thing is when he does get out of the splint all his workloads are going to be up to speed and it will be pretty much into that second Test, which is good news to us," McDonald said.

Australia will be touring India for the Border-Gavaskar trophy which will feature four tests, commencing from February 9 in Nagpur.

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2nd ODI LIVE Score: South Africa Look To Seal Series Against England

SA vs ENG, 2nd ODI Live Cricket Score: Eight games and just one win! That's how England's report card has been in the 50-over format of late. Having lost the opening ODI against hosts South Africa, Jos Buttler's men have their backs against the wall as they look to bounce back and keep themselves alive in the 3-match series. Rassie van der Dussen (111) was the star of the match for the Proteas in the series opener while David Miller also played a handy knock of 53 off 56. Chasing the challenging target of 299 runs, England got off to a fine start as Jason Roy (113) and Dawid Malan (59) put up 146 runs for the first wicket. But, Anrich Nortje ran riot, picking up 4 wickets for 62 runs, as the hosts secured a 27-run win. (LIVE Scorecard)

Here are the Highlights of the 2nd ODI between South Africa and England straight from the Mangaung Oval in Bloemfontein:

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Not Hardik! Ex India Opener Names His Pick For Team's Future ODI Skipper

Former Indian cricket team opener Aakash Chopra said on Friday that Rohit Sharma is expected to captain the side till the World Test Championship in 2023 but added that a change in the ODI captaincy can be expected after this year's World Cup. In a recent interaction, Chopra added that while Hardik Pandya will most likely lead India in the ICC T20 World Cup 2024, it is unlikely that he will be given the ODI captaincy. When asked about his picks for India's future ODI captain, Chopra said that Shubman Gill or Rishabh Pant can be solid candidates to replace Rohit as skipper.

“I don't think we will see a single captain for all formats just yet, I think those days are over. Rohit Sharma will be the Test team's captain till the WTC, that's not going to change - it is going to stay like that," Chopra said on Jio Cinema.

"Hardik Pandya is currently the captain in the T20 format, and I think he will continue to do so and in the ICC T20 World Cup 2024, you will see Pandya be the captain of the Indian team. In One-Day cricket, Rohit Sharma will continue to be the captain till the World Cup. But I think in the long term, in terms of India's captaincy, it will be Shubman Gill and Rishabh Pant. These are my two candidates for India's captaincy in the future, he further said.

Pandya is currently leading Team India in the ongoing T20I series against New Zealand in absence of Rohit Sharma.

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Adani Group Rules Out Changes In Price, Dates Of Sale Of New Shares

Billionaire Gautam Adani's group on Saturday ruled out any changes in price or the dates of the Rs 20,000 crore follow-on share sale at the conglomerate's flagship firm despite its stocks being hammered below the offer price after a scathing report by a US short seller.

"Adani Enterprises Limited's further public offer (FPO) is going as per schedule and the announced price band. There is no change in either the schedule of the issue price," a group spokesperson said.

The FPO got subscribed just one per cent on the opening day on Friday. Against an offer of 4.55 crore shares of Adani Enterprises Ltd, only 4.7 lakh shares were subscribed, according to information available from the BSE.

Adani Enterprises fell almost 20 per cent to below the offer price of its secondary sale as all the seven listed companies of the conglomerate took a beating in the aftermath of Hindenburg Research alleging that the group was "engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades".

The Group has dismissed the report as malicious and bogus aimed at torpedoing the FPO.

Adani Enterprises is selling shares in a price band of Rs 3,112 to Rs 3,276. On Friday, its share price closed at Rs 2,762.15 on the BSE.

"All our stakeholders including bankers and investors have full faith in the FPO. We are extremely confident about the success of the FPO," the spokesperson added.

The FPO closes on January 31.

On Wednesday, Adani Enterprises raised Rs 5,985 crore from anchor investors.

The company allotted 1.82 crore equity shares to 33 funds at Rs 3,276 apiece, taking the transaction size to Rs 5,985 crore, according to a circular uploaded on the BSE website.

Foreign investors who picked up the shares included Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, Societe Generale, Goldman Sachs Investment (Mauritius) Ltd, Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte, Nomura Singapore Ltd and Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius.

A slew of domestic institutional investors, including LIC, SBI Life Insurance Company, HDFC Life Insurance Company and State Bank Of India Employees Pension Fund, also participated in the anchor book.

Out of the Rs 20,000-crore proceeds from the FPO, Rs 10,869 crore will be used for green hydrogen projects, work at the existing airports and construction of a greenfield expressway.

An amount of Rs 4,165 crore will be utilised for repayment of debt taken by its airports, road and solar project subsidiaries.

Adani Enterprises is India's largest listed business incubator and breeds businesses in four core industry sectors -- energy and utility, transportation and logistics, consumer, and primary industry.

The current business portfolio includes green hydrogen ecosystem, data centres, airports, digital, mining, defence and industrial manufacturing.

(Disclaimer: New Delhi Television is a subsidiary of AMG Media Networks Limited, an Adani Group Company.)

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